To all appearances, President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia and President Alaksandr Lukashenka of Belarus are two birds of a feather, as the saying goes. Both are dedicated autocrats, both have extended their tenure through manipulation and both will use any and all means to retain their power. Both rely on the military and police to stay in power and both are relentless in suppressing free media and the opposition.
Until recent past, the opposition in both countries also had many things in common: no clearly defined common goal, too many groupings (“parties”) with too many chiefs and too few Indians, continuous infighting among themselves, and self-inflicted weaknesses. Judging by the outcome of the September 24 elections, the opposition in Yugoslavia finally has learned its lesson, though not completely.
With 18 Serbian opposition parties united behind one presidential candidate, the opposition claims to have won the election outright with more than 50 percent of the vote. Even official figures show Milosevic to be behind by more than ten percentage points. But Mr. Milosevic has shown no signs of wanting to go. The government-appointed electoral commission maintains that the opposition scored less than 50 percent and has announced a second-round runoff to be held October 8. Opposition members have accused the government of fraud. As of this writing (October 2), the opposition presidential candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, announced he would boycott the second round and force Milosevic out by resorting to massive street demonstrations and nation-wide strikes. Milosevic, on other hand, counts on a second round and hopes to win by default. While the West is calling for Milosevic to go, Russia has taken the position that Yugoslavs should “decide for themselves” the outcome of the election.
According to reports, the opposition candidates also won in the municipal elections but lost in the parliamentary ones. Why lost? Because the independence-minded Montenegro, the other republic which makes up Yugoslavia, chose to boycott the parliamentary elections. And so, even if Milosevic goes, his majority in parliament will make the life of the new president pretty uncomfortable.
Now, let’s go back to the situation in Belarus. Belarus is scheduled to have its elections to the lower house of National Assembly on October 15. The opposition considers the assembly as an unconstitutional institution, an outgrowth of the fraudulent 1996 referendum. However, it decided to go along with the elections, provided the government agrees to four criteria proposed by the OSCE. These criteria -- aimed at guaranteeing free and fair democratic elections -- are: respect for human rights and an end to the climate of fear; opposition access to the state media; a democratic electoral code; and the granting of real power to the parliament that will be chosen in these elections.
Lukashenka reportedly agreed to these criteria. But he has stalled with the implementation, offering insignificant “concessions” very late in the game. Many observers have concluded that the government has not made real progress in fulfilling the four criteria for international recognition of the elections. And the democratic opposition, feeling it had no time for organizing a viable election campaign, decided to boycott the elections. The OSCE, the U.S. and European government institutions have said they are not going to send their election observers to Belarus but will send instead a “technical mission.” With much confusion around, some members of the “united” democratic opposition broke ranks and decided to run. So much for unity.
Lately, the Lukashenka regime has launched a campaign of intensified harassment directed against members of the opposition. The government controlled television, especially "Panorama," has unleashed a series of newscasts featuring hateful diatribes disparaging the opposition figures.
With the parliamentary elections written off, the opposition is counting on the presidential election due in 2001. This date provides for the extension of Lukashenka’s tenure by two years and is mandated by the fraudulent 1996 referendum, which both the West and Belarusian democratic opposition consider illegal.
Commenting on the Yugoslav elections, Vincuk Viacorka, head of the Belarusian Popular Front, is quoted as saying that Lukashenka will find himself the only black hole on the body of Central and Eastern Europe. “Victory over Milosevic . . . proves that our tactics of unity is right, that we need to fight for real power at the presidential elections, that it is necessary to compromise and agree upon a single democratic candidate and launch an effective campaign three months prior to the ballot.”
Well, good luck! We will keep our fingers crossed. We are certain Lukashenka will use every trick in the book to prolong his hold on power. Some observers believe that recent personnel changes in security-sensitive positions indicate Lukashenka is reinforcing the "Russian factor" within his inner circle.
Belarus had -- but has missed -- a fair chance to build an independent, sovereign, democratic country after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the advent of Lukashenka, those chances have been diminishing with every year. We hope the opposition take a long and good look at the Yugoslav elections and consolidate their forces, expand their base, develop a workable plan, stay united, and not wait to start their presidential campaign till just three month before the balloting but do it much sooner.
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